Pengaruh Indeks Harga Konsumen, Jumlah Uang Beredar, Produk Domestik Bruto, Suku Bunga, dan Neraca Pembayaran Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah
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Oct 10, 2023
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Exchange Rate, Economic Factors, Indonesia
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Abstract
This study aims to analyze the relationship between various assumed economic variables and exchange rate fluctuations of the Rupee against the US dollar. The variables considered include the logarithmic difference of the consumer price index of Indonesia and the United States, the logarithmic difference of the money supply of Indonesia and the United States, the logarithmic difference of the gross domestic product of Indonesia and the United States, the logarithmic difference of the Indonesian and US interest rates and the logarithm of the Indonesian balance of payments. The data analysis results show that only the difference between the logarithm of the gross domestic product of Indonesia and the US and the difference between the logarithm of the interest rates of Indonesia and the US have a significant influence on the change in the exchange rate of Indonesia rupiah. The R-squared of 61.6% shows that the observed variation in the dependent variable can be explained by the independent variables, while the remaining 38.4% is influenced by other factors. The conclusion of this study is that the difference in change in the logarithm of gross domestic product and the difference in the logarithm of interest rate have a significant impact on the volatility of the rupee exchange rate.
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Rofi’i, Y. U. (2023). Pengaruh Indeks Harga Konsumen, Jumlah Uang Beredar, Produk Domestik Bruto, Suku Bunga, dan Neraca Pembayaran Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah. Jurnal EMT KITA, 7(4), 1139–1148. https://doi.org/10.35870/emt.v7i4.1568
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References
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Apriyani, D., & Amna, L. S. (2023). Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Pendapatan Asli Daerah di Daerah Sumatera. Jurnal EMT KITA, 7(4), 985-997.
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Calvo, G. A., & Mishkin, F. S. (2002). The mirage of exchange rate regimes for emerging market countries. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(4), 99-118.
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Meese, R. A., & Rogoff, K. (1983). Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: Do they fit out of sample?. Journal of international economics, 14(1-2), 3-24.
Mohamed, I. A. (2011). Analysis of the Impacts of Money Supply on Income and Prices in the Sudan. Monetary Economics, 3(53).
Mora, N., Neaime, S., & Aintablian, S. (2013). Foreign currency borrowing by small firms in emerging markets: When domestic banks intermediate dollars. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(3), 1093-1107.
Muktar, B. (2016). Bank dan lembaga keuangan lain. Prenada Media.
National Research Council. (2002). At what price?: conceptualizing and measuring cost-of-living and price indexes. National Academies Press.
Nurdin, M. A. F., Hadiyanto, F., & Fauzan, A. (2018). Analisis Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Pembiayaan Bank Syariah di Indonesia Periode 2003-2014. ECONEUR (Journal of Economics and Entrepreneurship), 1(1), 5-8.
Prasetyo, V. R., Lazuardi, H., Mulyono, A. A., & Lauw, C. (2021). Penerapan Aplikasi RapidMiner Untuk Prediksi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap US Dollar Dengan Metode Regresi Linier. Jurnal Nasional Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi (TEKNOSI), 7(1), 8-17.
Pukthuanthong-Le, K., Elayan, F. A., & Rose, L. C. (2007). Equity and debt market responses to sovereign credit ratings announcement. Global finance journal, 18(1), 47-83.
Septiawan, D. (2019). FAKTOR–FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INFLASI DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2008-2017 (Doctoral dissertation, Universitas Siliwangi).
Sitorus, A. P., Majid, M. S. A., & Handayani, R. (2022). Krisis Keuangan Masa Depan dan Sistem Keuangan Baru. Jurnal EMT KITA, 6(1), 136-146.
Statistics, U. B. O. (2013). Consumer price index. Pretoria: StatsSA.
Tiwa, F. R. (2016). Pengaruh investasi, suku bunga sertifikat bank indonesia (sbi) dan jumlah uang beredar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia Tahun 2005-2014. Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Efisiensi, 16(2).
Yansyah, M. F., & Masbar, R. (2019). Pengaruh Variabel Moneter Dalam Negeri Dan Luar Negeri Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Ekonomi Pembangunan, 4(1), 1-10.
Anugerah, R. A. D. (2016). Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Kurs Di Indonesia (Analisis ECM) (Doctoral dissertation, Universitas Andalas).
Apriyani, D., & Amna, L. S. (2023). Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Pendapatan Asli Daerah di Daerah Sumatera. Jurnal EMT KITA, 7(4), 985-997.
Arif, D. (2014). Pengaruh produk domestik bruto, jumlah uang beredar, inflasi dan BI rate terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan di Indonesia periode 2007-2013. Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Bisnis, 19(3).
Atmadja, A. S. (2002). Analisa pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Setelah Diterapkannya kebijakan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas di Indonesia. Jurnal Akuntansi dan keuangan, 4(1), 69-78.
Babić, A. (2007). Paul R. Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld: International Economics: Theory and Policy. Financial theory and practice, 31(3), 317-318.
Bakri, M., & Mufadhdhal, M. F. (2023). Analisis Kausalitas Kebebasan Sipil dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia. Jurnal EMT KITA, 7(1), 164-172.
Calvo, G. A., & Mishkin, F. S. (2002). The mirage of exchange rate regimes for emerging market countries. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(4), 99-118.
Carissa, N., & Khoirudin, R. (2020). The factors affecting the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan, 18(1), 37-46.
Chasanah, A. N., Riyono, R., & Ristanto, H. (2022). Factors Affecting the Rupiah Exchange Rate During the Covid 19 Pandemic. Journal of Economics and Public Health, 1(2), 79-88.
Cline, D. K., & Mazumder, S. (2022). Money, banking, and financial markets: A modern introduction to macroeconomics. Routledge.
Doan Van, D. (2020). Money supply and inflation impact on economic growth. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 12(1), 121-136.
Dwijayanthy, F., & Naomi, P. (2009). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, BI Rate, dan Nilai Tukar Mata Uang terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Periode 2003-2007 [English: Analysis of Effect of Inflation, BI Rate, and Exchange Rate on Bank Profitability (Period 2003-2007)]. Jurnal Karisma, 3(2), 87-98.
Enuameh, N. T. K. (2019). Exchange rate, interest rates, inflation rate and gross domestic production (GDP) in Ghana (Doctoral dissertation, University of Cape Coast).
Ghosh, M. A. R., Ostry, M. J. D., & Tsangarides, M. C. G. (2011). Exchange rate regimes and the stability of the international monetary system. International Monetary Fund.
Griffith, R., Leibtag, E., Leicester, A., & Nevo, A. (2008). Timing and Quantity of Consumer Purchases and the Consumer Price Index (No. w14433). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Ivashina, V., Scharfstein, D. S., & Stein, J. C. (2015). Dollar funding and the lending behavior of global banks. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(3), 1241-1281.
Kalalo, H. (2016). Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi inflasi di Indonesia periode 2000-2014. Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Efisiensi, 16(1).
Karlina, B. (2017). Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi, Indeks Harga Konsumen Terhadap PDB di Indonesia Pada Tahun 2011-2015. Jurnal Ekonomika Dan Manajemen, 6(1), 16-27.
Kewal, S. S. (2012). Pengaruh inflasi, suku bunga, kurs, dan pertumbuhan PDB terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan. Jurnal economia, 8(1), 53-64.
Khan, K., Su, C. W., Tao, R., & Chu, C. C. (2018). Is there any relationship between producer price index and consumer price index in the Czech Republic?. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 31(1), 1788-1806.
Lopez, R. (2017). The environment as a factor of production: The effects of economic growth and trade liberalization 1. In International trade and the environment (pp. 239-260). Routledge.
Marseto, M. (2022). Pergerakan Nilai Rupiah Selama Dan Pasca Pandemi Covid 19. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Pembangunan, 17(1).
Meese, R. A., & Rogoff, K. (1983). Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: Do they fit out of sample?. Journal of international economics, 14(1-2), 3-24.
Mohamed, I. A. (2011). Analysis of the Impacts of Money Supply on Income and Prices in the Sudan. Monetary Economics, 3(53).
Mora, N., Neaime, S., & Aintablian, S. (2013). Foreign currency borrowing by small firms in emerging markets: When domestic banks intermediate dollars. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(3), 1093-1107.
Muktar, B. (2016). Bank dan lembaga keuangan lain. Prenada Media.
National Research Council. (2002). At what price?: conceptualizing and measuring cost-of-living and price indexes. National Academies Press.
Nurdin, M. A. F., Hadiyanto, F., & Fauzan, A. (2018). Analisis Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Pembiayaan Bank Syariah di Indonesia Periode 2003-2014. ECONEUR (Journal of Economics and Entrepreneurship), 1(1), 5-8.
Prasetyo, V. R., Lazuardi, H., Mulyono, A. A., & Lauw, C. (2021). Penerapan Aplikasi RapidMiner Untuk Prediksi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap US Dollar Dengan Metode Regresi Linier. Jurnal Nasional Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi (TEKNOSI), 7(1), 8-17.
Pukthuanthong-Le, K., Elayan, F. A., & Rose, L. C. (2007). Equity and debt market responses to sovereign credit ratings announcement. Global finance journal, 18(1), 47-83.
Septiawan, D. (2019). FAKTOR–FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INFLASI DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2008-2017 (Doctoral dissertation, Universitas Siliwangi).
Sitorus, A. P., Majid, M. S. A., & Handayani, R. (2022). Krisis Keuangan Masa Depan dan Sistem Keuangan Baru. Jurnal EMT KITA, 6(1), 136-146.
Statistics, U. B. O. (2013). Consumer price index. Pretoria: StatsSA.
Tiwa, F. R. (2016). Pengaruh investasi, suku bunga sertifikat bank indonesia (sbi) dan jumlah uang beredar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia Tahun 2005-2014. Jurnal Berkala Ilmiah Efisiensi, 16(2).
Yansyah, M. F., & Masbar, R. (2019). Pengaruh Variabel Moneter Dalam Negeri Dan Luar Negeri Terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Ekonomi Pembangunan, 4(1), 1-10.