Published: 2023-08-30
Pengaruh Inflasi dan Pengangguran Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia
DOI: 10.35870/jemensri.v8i2.3041
Downloads
Abstract
This research aims to determine the effect of inflation and unemployment on economic growth in Indonesia. Using annual time series data for the period 2000-2022, the analysis model used is multiple linear regression and autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL). This research reveals that there is no cointegration relationship between economic growth and inflation and unemployment. In both the long and short term, inflation has a positive impact on economic growth. Meanwhile, unemployment in both the long and short term has a negative impact on economic growth. These findings have implications that efforts to increase Indonesia's economic growth can be carried out through policy interventions related to the money supply which influences inflation and increases employment opportunities in order to reduce unemployment.
Keywords
Economic Growth ; Inflation ; Unemployment ; Time Series ; Multiple Linear Regression ; Autoregressive Distributed Lag
Article Information
This article has been peer-reviewed and published in the Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen dan Sekretari. The content is available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
-
Issue: Vol. 8 No. 2 (2023)
-
Section: Articles
-
Published: %750 %e, %2023
-
License: CC BY 4.0
-
Copyright: © 2024 Authors
-
DOI: 10.35870/jemensri.v8i2.3041
AI Research Hub
This article is indexed and available through various AI-powered research tools and citation platforms. Our AI Research Hub ensures that scholarly work is discoverable, accessible, and easily integrated into the global research ecosystem. By leveraging artificial intelligence for indexing, recommendation, and citation analysis, we enhance the visibility and impact of published research.
Fauzani Salsabila
Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, Universitas Islam Negeri Ar-Raniry, Kota Banda Aceh, Provinsi Aceh, Indonesia.
Khairul Amri
Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, Universitas Islam Negeri Ar-Raniry, Kota Banda Aceh, Provinsi Aceh, Indonesia.
-
Akeju, K. F., & Olanipekun, D. B. (2014). Unemployment and economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 5(4), 138-144.
-
Arizqi, S., Afida, R., & Setiawan, R. (2022). Menganalisis Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia Dari Berbagai Sektor Penting Sebagai Acuan Untuk Meningkatkan Perkembangan Di Masa Mendatang. SNHRP, 4, 407-416.
-
Asafo-Adjei, E., Qabhobho, T., & Adam, A. M. (2023). Conditional effects of local and global risk factors on the co-movements between economic growth and inflation: Insights into G8 economies. Heliyon, 9(9). DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19570.
-
Baharumshah, A. Z., Slesman, L., & Wohar, M. E. (2016). Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence. Economic Systems, 40(4), 638-657. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2016.02.009.
-
Banna, H., Alam, A., Chen, X. H., & Alam, A. W. (2023). Energy security and economic stability: The role of inflation and war. Energy Economics, 126, 106949.
-
Caggiano, G., Castelnuovo, E., & Figueres, J. M. (2017). Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States: A nonlinear approach. Economics Letters, 151, 31-34. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.12.002.
-
Gwaison, P. D., Maimako, L. N., & Mwolchet, P. S. (2020). Capital Market and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing Approach. International Journal of Finance Research, 1(2), 74-92. DOI: https://doi.org/10.47747/financeinvestmentderivative.v1i2.113.
-
Hartati, N. (2020). Pengaruh inflasi dan tingkat pengangguran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia periode 2010–2016. Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Pelita Bangsa, 5(01), 92-119. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37366/jespb.v5i01.86.
-
Hjazeen, H., Seraj, M., & Ozdeser, H. (2021). The nexus between the economic growth and unemployment in Jordan. Future Business Journal, 7(1), 42.
-
Jordà, Ò., & Nechio, F. (2023). Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic. European Economic Review, 156, 104474. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104474.
-
Makaringe, S. C., & Khobai, H. (2018). The effect of unemployment on economic growth in South Africa (1994-2016).
-
Mandeya, S. M. T., & Ho, S. Y. (2021). Inflation, inflation uncertainty and the economic growth nexus: An impact study of South Africa. MethodsX, 8, 101501.
-
Mohseni, M., & Jouzaryan, F. (2016). Examining the effects of inflation and unemployment on economic growth in Iran (1996-2012). Procedia Economics and Finance, 36, 381-389. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)30050-8.
-
Mohseni, M., & Jouzaryan, F. (2016). Examining the effects of inflation and unemployment on economic growth in Iran (1996-2012). Procedia Economics and Finance, 36, 381-389. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(16)30050-8.
-
Moutinho, V., & Madaleno, M. (2020). Economic growth assessment through an ARDL approach: The case of African OPEC countries. Energy Reports, 6, 305-311.
-
Musakwa, M., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2019). The impact of remittance inflows on poverty in Botswana: An ARDL approach. Journal of Economic Structures, 8(1), 1-13.
-
Muttaqin, R. (2018). Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dalam Perspektif Islam Economic Growth in Islamic Perspective. Ekonomika (Yogyakarta: BPFE, 1984), 213, 219.
-
Niken, K., Haile, M. A., & Berecha, A. (2023). On the nexus of inflation, unemployment, and economic growth in Ethiopia. Heliyon, 9(4).
-
Nugroho, R. E. (2016). Analisis Faktor–Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Pengangguran Di Indonesia Periode 1998–2014. Penelitian dan Aplikasi Sistem dan Teknik Industri, 10(2), 182887.
-
Razia, A., Omarya, M., Razia, B., Awwad, B., & Ruzieh, A. (2023). Examining how unemployment, inflation and their related aspects affected economic growth in Palestine: The period from 1991 to 2020. Heliyon, 9(11).
-
Ronaldo, R. (2019). Pengaruh inflasi dan tingkat pengangguran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi makro di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi, 21(2), 137-153. DOI: https://doi.org/10.37721/je.v21i2.555.
-
Sadiku, M., Ibraimi, A., & Sadiku, L. (2015). Econometric estimation of the relationship between unemployment rate and economic growth of FYR of Macedonia. Procedia Economics and Finance, 19, 69-81. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00009-X.
-
Salim, A., Fadilla, F., & Purnamasari, A. (2021). Pengaruh inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. Ekonomica Sharia: Jurnal Pemikiran dan Pengembangan Ekonomi Syariah, 7(1), 17-28. DOI: https://doi.org/10.36908/esha.v7i1.268.
-
Sarel, M. (1996). Nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. Staff Papers, 43(1), 199-215.
-
Sequeira, T. N. (2021). Inflation, economic growth and education expenditure. Economic Modelling, 99, 105475. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.02.016.
-
Shahbaz, M. (2013). Linkages between inflation, economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan. Economic modelling, 32, 496-506. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.02.014.
-
Shahid, M. (2014). Effect of inflation and unemployment on economic growth in Pakistan. Journal of economics and sustainable development, 5(15), 103-106.
-
Shrestha, M. B., & Bhatta, G. R. (2018). Selecting appropriate methodological framework for time series data analysis. The Journal of Finance and Data Science, 4(2), 71-89.
-
Sundusiyah, K. Z., Priana, W., & Wahed, M. (2021). Analisis Beberapa Faktor yang Memengaruhi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. Jurnal Syntax Admiration, 2(5), 863-879.
-
Widarjono, A. (2018). Pengantar dan Aplikasinya Disertai Panduan Eviews. Buku Ekonometrika. Edisi, 5.
-
Wiriani, E. (2020). Pengaruh inflasi dan kurs terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Jurnal Samudra Ekonomika, 4(1), 41-50.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
1. Copyright Retention and Open Access License
Authors retain copyright of their work and grant the journal non-exclusive right of first publication under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
This license allows unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
2. Rights Granted Under CC BY 4.0
Under this license, readers are free to:
- Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
- Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, including commercial use
- No additional restrictions — the licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as license terms are followed
3. Attribution Requirements
All uses must include:
- Proper citation of the original work
- Link to the Creative Commons license
- Indication if changes were made to the original work
- No suggestion that the licensor endorses the user or their use
4. Additional Distribution Rights
Authors may:
- Deposit the published version in institutional repositories
- Share through academic social networks
- Include in books, monographs, or other publications
- Post on personal or institutional websites
Requirement: All additional distributions must maintain the CC BY 4.0 license and proper attribution.
5. Self-Archiving and Pre-Print Sharing
Authors are encouraged to:
- Share pre-prints and post-prints online
- Deposit in subject-specific repositories (e.g., arXiv, bioRxiv)
- Engage in scholarly communication throughout the publication process
6. Open Access Commitment
This journal provides immediate open access to all content, supporting the global exchange of knowledge without financial, legal, or technical barriers.